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TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092017
0900 UTC THU AUG 24 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...


A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM PORT
MANSFIELD TO MATAGORDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF MATAGORDA
TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.


NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO MATAGORDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* NORTH OF MATAGORDA TO HIGH ISLAND
* SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE... TEXAS TO BOCA DE CATAN
MEXICO.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA
THIS MORNING.  IN ADDITION... INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N  92.8W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N  92.8W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N  92.6W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 24.0N  93.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE  30SE  20SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 25.1N  94.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...130NE  50SE  30SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 26.3N  95.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...140NE  70SE  50SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 27.5N  97.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...140NE  80SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 28.5N  97.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  90SE  30SW  30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 28.5N  97.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 27.6N  97.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N  92.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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