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TROPICAL STORM GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082017
0300 UTC MON AUG 14 2017
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N  71.9W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N  71.9W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.5N  71.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 30.0N  72.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 31.6N  72.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 33.6N  71.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 36.0N  68.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE  80SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 41.0N  55.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  70SE  40SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 150SE  90SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 48.0N  41.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N  71.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 
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