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Potential Tropical Cyclone SEVEN (Text)


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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 06 2017

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 82.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Campeche

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Belize City northward to the border of Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere around the Bay of Campeche should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
16.1 North, longitude 82.7 West.  The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue over the next 48 hours.  On the forecast track,
the center will pass north of Honduras tonight and early Monday,
then approach the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula Monday
afternoon.  The system is forecast to move across Yucatan Peninsula
Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts, and an increase in strength is forecast during the next day
or so.

Upper-level winds are becoming more conducive for development, and
the disturbance is likely to become a tropical cyclone overnight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts
of around 12 inches, are possible across the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico and Belize through Wednesday.  These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods.

WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected to begin in portions
of the warning area by Monday afternoon or evening.  Tropical Storm
conditions are possible in portions of the watch area by Monday
afternoon or evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Zelinsky

NNNN

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Page last modified: Monday, 16-Oct-2017 12:09:18 UTC