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TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072017
1500 UTC MON AUG 07 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CAMPECHE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CAMPECHE TO SABANCUY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE AROUND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  85.1W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 120SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE  60SE  30SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  85.1W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  84.6W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.5N  86.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.5N  88.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.1N  91.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.5N  93.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 20.8N  97.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  40SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N  85.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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