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TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072017
0900 UTC MON AUG 07 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR A PORTION
OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CAMPECHE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CAMPECHE TO SABANCUY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE AROUND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N  84.2W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N  84.2W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  83.7W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.0N  85.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.0N  88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.9N  90.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE  60SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.4N  92.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE  60SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 21.0N  96.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 21.1N 100.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N  84.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


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