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POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072017
2100 UTC SUN AUG 06 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
CHETUMAL NORTHWARD AND AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CAMPECHE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CAMPECHE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE AROUND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N  82.0W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N  82.0W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N  81.5W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.6N  83.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT...TROPICAL CYCLONE
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.0N  85.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.0N  88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.9N  90.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.0N  93.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 21.2N  97.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N  82.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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