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Hurricane FRANKLIN (Text)


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Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017
400 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017

Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations from earlier today indicated
that Franklin was very close to hurricane strength.  Since the time
of the last mission, the system has become better organized, with a
faint eye occasionally making an appearance on visible satellite
images.  Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are 65
kt and this value will be used for the advisory intensity, making
Franklin the first hurricane of the season.  There is some northerly
shear evident over the system and with several arc clouds evident
over the outer circulation's northwest quadrant, perhaps some dry
air is nearby.  These environmental conditions are not expected to
be detrimental enough, however, to prevent at least some additional
strengthening before landfall tonight.  An Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Franklin a few hours
from now to check the strength of the cyclone.

The hurricane continues to move westward, with the initial motion
estimated to be 270/10.  There are essentially no changes to the
track forecast or reasoning.  The flow on the southern side of a
mid-level high pressure area near the Texas coast should continue
to steer Franklin towards, and across, the southwest Gulf coast of
Mexico.  The official track forecast follows the latest dynamical
track model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 20.1N  94.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 19.8N  96.6W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
 24H  10/1800Z 19.3N  99.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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Page last modified: Thursday, 19-Oct-2017 12:09:11 UTC