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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Emily Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062017
1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

...EMILY APPROACHING THE MOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 82.8W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Bonita Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
likely within the warning area, in this case within the next few
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emily was
located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 82.8 West. Emily is
moving toward the east near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue today.  A turn toward the northeast with an
increase in forward speed are expected by tonight and Tuesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Emily is expected to move inland
over the the west-central Florida peninsula this afternoon, and move
across central Florida through tonight.  Emily is forecast to move
offshore of the east-central Florida coast Tuesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast until landfall occurs this
afternoon.  Emily is expected to weaken to a tropical depression
while it moves across the Florida peninsula later today and tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Emily is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches through Monday night along the west coast of central
Florida between the Tampa Bay area and Naples, with isolated amounts
up to 8 inches possible. Elsewhere across central and south Florida,
1 to 2 inches of rain is expected with localized amounts of up to 4
inches possible. Reports from amateur radio operators indicate that
street and road flooding has already been occurring in Manatee and
Sarasota Counties near the Myakka River.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are likely within the warning area
through this afternoon.

TORNADOES: A brief tornado could occur across the central and
southern Florida Peninsula today, with isolated waterspouts
possible over the coastal waters of southwestern Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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