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Tropical Storm Emily Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062017
1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

There has been little change in Emily's overall structure as seen in
satellite and radar imagery over the past several hours. The
inner-core convection has waxed and waned while the outer convective
bands and rain shield on the south side of the small cyclone have
remained fairly steady. Velocity data from the NOAA Tampa Bay
WSR-88D Doppler radar has been indicating average velocities of
50-52 kt, with isolated bins of 55-62 kt, just south of the
circulation center between 4000-5000 ft altitude during the past few
hours. Using a standard adjustment factor of 80 percent still
supports a surface wind speed estimate of 40 kt.

Little change in strength is forecast until landfall occurs, after
which slow weakening is expected as Emily moves across the Florida
peninsula through tonight. After emerging off of the east-central
Florida on Tuesday, some slow re- strengthening is forecast on days
2-3 when Emily will be moving over SSTs of 28C and the vertical wind
shear will shift from northwesterly to southwesterly and decrease to
10-15 kt. By 96 h, the shear is forecast to increase to 25-30 kt,
which should keep the intensity steady or induce slight weakening
until Emily dissipates in about 120 h. Since Emily is not expected
to regain tropical storm status before it moves offshore of the
Florida east coast Tuesday morning, no watches or warnings are
required for that area.

The initial motion estimate is 090/08 kt. Emily is approaching the
mouth of Tampa Bay, and landfall along the west-central Florida
coast should occur by early afternoon. After landfall, the latest
model guidance remains in excellent agreement on Emily turning
east-northeastward tonight and moving across the central Florida
peninsula as a depression, and emerging off of the east-central
Florida coast Tuesday morning. A mid-/upper-level trough currently
located over the upper Midwest is forecast to dig southeastward and
amplify along the southeastern U.S. coast by 24-36 h, accelerating
Emily to the northeast over the open Atlantic through the remainder
of the forecast period. The new NHC forecast track is just an update
and extension of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the
TVCN consensus model.

The primary threat with Emily is expected to be locally heavy
rainfall across central an southern portions of the Florida
peninsula during the next day or two. However, a brief tornado will
be possible across central and southern Florida today, along with
isolated waterspouts over the coastal waters of southwestern
Florida.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/1500Z 27.6N  82.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 27.7N  81.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  01/1200Z 28.9N  79.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  02/0000Z 30.5N  77.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 32.2N  75.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  03/1200Z 35.3N  70.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  04/1200Z 37.7N  63.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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