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Tropical Depression FOUR (Text)


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Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042017
1100 AM AST Fri Jul 07 2017

The depression consists of a possible circulation center embedded
within a very small area of intermittent convection. The areal
coverage of the convection has been gradually decreasing since
yesterday, and the cloud pattern is not showing much organization
at this time. NHC is keeping an initial intensity of 25 kt, and
these winds are only occurring in a few remaining squalls.

Although the shear is currently low, the depression is moving into
a relatively low-moisture environment, and this factor in
combination with the fast motion of the cyclone will probably
result in weakening. The depression is forecast to become a remnant
low or degenerate into a open wave tonight.

The depression or its remnants will continue to move toward the
west-northwest at about 18 kt embedded within the strong July
trade winds.  This is the solution of the few models which
maintain a distinct perturbation in the flow for a few more days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 15.6N  50.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 16.5N  53.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  08/1200Z 17.8N  57.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  09/0000Z 19.2N  60.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  09/1200Z 21.0N  63.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  10/1200Z 23.5N  69.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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Page last modified: Monday, 23-Oct-2017 12:09:07 UTC