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Potential Tropical Cyclone THREE (Text)


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POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032017
1500 UTC TUE JUN 20 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD TO HIGH
ISLAND TEXAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TO SAN
LUIS PASS TEXAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HIGH ISLAND TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TO SAN LUIS PASS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S. GULF COAST FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS
COAST TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N  90.5W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N  90.5W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N  90.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 26.7N  91.6W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...180NE 180SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 27.4N  92.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 120SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 28.6N  93.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 100SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 30.1N  94.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...80NE 100SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 34.0N  92.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 37.5N  84.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N  90.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 13-Dec-2017 12:09:04 UTC