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Potential Tropical Cyclone TWO (Text)


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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022017
500 PM AST Sun Jun 18 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...7.5N 50.4W
ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM ESE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
7.5 North, longitude 50.4 West.  The system is moving toward the
west near 23 mph (37 km/h).  A fast motion toward the west-
northwest is expected to continue for the next 48 hours.  On the
forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move through the
Windward Islands Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
disturbance is expected to reach tropical storm intensity on Monday
before it reaches the Windward Islands.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the disturbance
has become better organized since yesterday, and some additional
development is possible during the next couple of days before
conditions become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation
over the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area overnight Monday and Tuesday morning, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL:  The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the Windward Islands Monday
through Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

NNNN

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Page last modified: Monday, 16-Oct-2017 12:09:13 UTC