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Subtropical Depression One Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012017
1100 PM AST Wed Apr 19 2017

The subtropical depression has changed little in strength since
formation occurred earlier today.  Deep convection is confined to a
small area over the northwestern quadrant.  A pair of recent ASCAT
passes indicated that the maximum winds are still near 30 kt.  These
data also showed that the wind field of the system has contracted
since the earlier ASCAT passes this morning.

The cyclone has been moving northeastward at 10 kt during the past 6
to 12 hours.  A large extratropical cyclone is approaching the
system from the west-northwest, and it should cause the depression
to turn northward and then northwestward overnight and on Thursday.
Little change in strength is likely before the system dissipates
due to cold water and continued moderate shear. The models are in
excellent agreement, and show the extratropical low absorbing
the subtropical depression, or its remnants, in a day or so.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 33.2N  39.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 35.3N  39.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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