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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202016
1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016

Although the depression is producing a considerable amount of deep
convection, the cloud pattern is highly stretched from
north-northeast to south-southwest.  Microwave images from earlier
this morning indicate that the low-level structure of the system is
well organized despite the elongated appearance in geostationary
satellite images.  The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this
advisory.

A band of strong upper-level south-southwesterly winds lies just to
the north of the cyclone, and they could be contributing to its
aforementioned appearance in satellite images.  The global models
are in agreement in showing the upper-level wind environment
becoming more favorable for strengthening during the next few days.
The expected low wind shear combined with warm water and high
humidity values suggest that steady strengthening is likely
during the next 72 hours.  After that time, a notable increase in
southwesterly shear and cooler waters should end the strengthening
trend and cause weakening.  The NHC intensity forecast shows a
slightly higher peak intensity than the previous one, but it is
lower than the SHIPS and LGEM models.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at 14 kt.  A continued
west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected during the next few days while the cyclone moves along the
southwestern periphery of a high pressure system located over
Mexico.  By the end of the forecast period, a deep-layer low is
forecast to erode the ridge and should cause the cyclone to slow
down even more and turn northwestward.  The NHC track forecast is
very close to the multi-model consensus TVCN for the next 4 days,
but lies to the left of that aid at 120 h in favor of the ECMWF
model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 13.5N 105.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 14.1N 106.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 14.9N 108.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 15.6N 111.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 16.1N 113.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  26/1200Z 17.3N 117.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  27/1200Z 19.3N 120.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  28/1200Z 21.0N 122.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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