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BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016
500 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2016

...PAINE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY FOR NOW...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 116.5W
ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM PDT (0000 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Paine
was located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 116.5 West. Paine
is moving toward the north-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h).  A
turn toward the north at a slower rate of forward speed is expected
by Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Paine is expected
to approach the northwest coast of the Baja California Tuesday
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Steady or rapid weakening is forecast to begin tonight and
Paine is expected to become a tropical storm on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Hurricane Paine is expected to produce rainfall amounts
of 2 to 4 inches across the northern Baja California peninsula with
isolated storm total amounts of 6 inches through Wednesday.

Moisture in advance of Paine will help spread rains into portions of
southern California, Arizona, southern Utah, New Mexico, and
southwestern Colorado with localized maximum amounts of 1 to 2
inches possible, mainly over the favored higher terrain.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area by Tuesday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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