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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAINE ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 20 2016

...PAINE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 116.8W
ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has changed the Tropical Storm Warning to a
Tropical Storm Watch from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Quintin.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paine was
located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 116.8 West.  Paine is
moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A turn toward the
north-northeast with a reduction in forward speed is expected
tonight.  On the forecast track, the center of Paine is expected to
approach the northwestern coast of the Baja California peninsula
tonight or early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Continued rapid weakening is forecast during the next
day or so, and Paine is expected to become a remnant low by
Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Paine is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches across the northern Baja California peninsula with isolated
storm total amounts of 6 inches through Wednesday.

Moisture in advance of Paine will help spread rains into portions
of southern California, Arizona, southern Utah, New Mexico, and
southwestern Colorado with localized maximum amounts of 1 to 2
inches possible, mainly over the favored higher terrain.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the
watch area by tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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