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BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAINE ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016
800 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2016

...PAINE IS BEGINNING TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 116.7W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paine was located
near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 116.7 West. Paine is moving
toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A turn toward
the north is expected tonight, followed by a north-northeastward
turn and a reduction in forward speed Tuesday night.  On the
forecast track, the center of Paine is expected to approach the
northwest coast of the Baja California Tuesday night or early
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Rapid weakening is forecast during the next
day or so, and Paine is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by
Tuesday morning, and become a remnant low on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Hurricane Paine is expected to produce rainfall amounts
of 2 to 4 inches across the northern Baja California peninsula with
isolated storm total amounts of 6 inches through Wednesday.

Moisture in advance of Paine will help spread rains into portions
of southern California, Arizona, southern Utah, New Mexico, and
southwestern Colorado with localized maximum amounts of 1 to 2
inches possible, mainly over the favored higher terrain.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within a portion of
the warning area by Tuesday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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