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HURRICANE PAINE ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016
200 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2016

...PAINE CONTINUES AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE WEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 116.2W
ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM S OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for a
portion of the northwestern Baja California peninsula from Punta
Eugenia to Cabo San Quintin.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Paine
was located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 116.2 West. Paine is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h).  A motion toward
the north at a slower rate of forward speed is expected by
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Steady or rapid weakening is forecast to begin tonight and
Paine is expected to become a tropical storm on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Hurricane Paine is expected to produce rainfall amounts
of 2 to 4 inches across the northern Baja California peninsula with
isolated storm total amounts of 6 inches through Wednesday.

Moisture in advance of Paine will help spread rains into portions of
southern California, Arizona, southern Utah, New Mexico, and
southwestern Colorado with localized maximum amounts of 1 to 2
inches possible, mainly over the favored higher terrain.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area by Tuesday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Landsea/Stewart

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