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TROPICAL STORM PAINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016
2100 UTC SUN SEP 18 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 112.9W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 112.9W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 112.4W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.8N 114.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 21.9N 116.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 23.9N 117.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 25.8N 117.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 28.9N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 112.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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