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POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 20 2016

Paine has become a swirl of low clouds that has been without deep
convection for more than 12 hours.  Since the cyclone is within
an area of strong southwesterly shear and over very cool SSTs, deep
convection is not likely to return.  As a result, the system has
become a remnant low, and this will be the final NHC advisory on
Paine.  The initial intensity of 30 kt is a blend of the various
subjective Dvorak T-numbers.  Post-tropical Paine is not expected
to be chronic, since the hostile environment and interaction with
Baja California should gradually relieve Paine of its winds,
resulting in dissipation in about 24 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 010/10 kt.  Now that the remnant
low will be steered by the low-level flow it should turn
north-northeastward, then northeastward with a reduction in
forward speed.  The new official forecast is near the consensus of
the GFS and ECMWF models.

Deep-layer moisture associated with the remnants of Paine is
expected to spread over portions of the northern Baja California
peninsula of Mexico and the southwestern United States during the
next day or so.  This could enhance the rainfall potential in these
areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 28.0N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  21/1200Z 29.1N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  22/0000Z 30.2N 115.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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