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HURRICANE PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016
800 AM PDT MON SEP 19 2016

A 1008Z SSMI microwave pass showed that an impressive complete
eyewall structure has developed in Paine.  While the eye is not yet
apparent in the standard infrared imagery, a transient eye has been
seen in the shortwave infrared pictures.  Subjective Dvorak, ADT,
and AMSU intensity estimates have risen and now range from 65 to 85
kt.  A blend of these give an initial intensity of 75 kt.

Despite the very rapid intensification observed in Paine - 40 kt in
24 hours - it is likely that the hurricane is at or very near its
peak intensity.  Its forecast track takes it over quite cold water
in just a day at the same time that the southwesterly vertical
shear become moderate to high.  Thus the NHC intensity forecast
shows steady weakening until Paine becomes a remnant low in 48
hours or sooner.  This forecast is based upon a blend of the LGEM
statistical scheme and the GFDL and COAMPS dynamical models, and is
nearly the same as that from the previous advisory, despite the
higher initial intensity.

Paine is moving toward the northwest at 13 kt, as it is being
steered between a deep-layer ridge to its northeast and an
upper-level cut-off-low to its northwest.  The tropical
cyclone should recurve to the north in about a day and then
decelerate as it encounters a weak low-level steering flow just west
of northern Baja California.  The NHC track forecast is based upon
the tightly clustered members of the TVCN multi-model track
consensus and is slightly faster than the previous advisory.

Deep-layer moisture associated with Paine or its remnants is
expected to spread over portions of the northern Baja California
peninsula of Mexico and the southwestern United States during the
next day or two.  This could enhance the rainfall potential in these
areas.

Even though the official forecast does not have Paine making
landfall as a tropical storm, the system will move close enough
to the west coast of Baja California that tropical-storm-force winds
are possible.  Thus the Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical
Storm Watch for portions of the northwestern Baja California
peninsula.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 22.0N 115.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 23.7N 116.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 26.1N 116.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 28.3N 116.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 29.9N 116.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea/Stewart

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