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TROPICAL STORM PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016
900 AM MDT SUN SEP 18 2016

An AMSR2 image from 0859 UTC revealed that the low-level center of
Paine was displaced somewhat to the east of the earlier estimated
track, indicative of easterly shear over the system.  Paine has a
fairly well-defined curved band, with very cold cloud tops, over the
western semicircle of the circulation.  Dvorak intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB remain at 35 kt, and this value will be used for
the advisory intensity.   The dynamical guidance shows a decrease in
shear over the next 24 hours, so Paine is likely to strengthen into
Monday.  In around 48 hours, SSTs are expected to drop below 24 deg
C, and this should cause significant weakening, and remnant low
status seems likely by 72 hours.  The official intensity forecast is
similar to the previous one, and near or above the model consensus.

Based on the aforementioned microwave image, the track has been
shifted eastward somewhat, and the initial motion estimate is 305/11
kt.  Over the next couple of days, Paine should move around the
southwestern periphery of a mid-level high centered over Texas.  The
official forecast track is to the right of the previous one, mainly
due to the eastward relocation of the center, but lies generally to
the left of the model consensus.

Although the cyclone is likely to dissipate before reaching land,
deep-layer moisture associated with Paine is expected to be advected
into extreme southeastern California and southwestern Arizona, which
could enhance the potential for unusual September rains across these
areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 17.5N 111.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 18.7N 113.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 20.7N 114.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 22.9N 116.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 24.9N 117.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  21/1200Z 28.0N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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