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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016
900 PM MDT SAT SEP 17 2016

The broad area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring for
several days south of Mexico has finally acquired enough
organization to be classified as a tropical depression with an
initial intensity of 30 kt.  Microwave data during the day showed
several swirls rotating around the larger circulation, but during
the past couple of hours, satellite images show that a well defined
center became embedded within the convection, and it is the one NHC
is currently tracking.

The shear is forecast to be light for the next day or so, allowing
the depression to intensify some. After 48 hours, both an increase
of shear and an encounter with cooler waters should result in
weakening as indicated in the NHC forecast.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest
or 305 degrees at 14 kt. The depression is being steered by a
strong subtropical high over northern Mexico. In about 36 hours,
the depression will reach the southwestern edge of the high, and
will likely turn northward with a decrease in forward speed. The
NHC forecast follows very closely the multi-model consensus TVCN.
This track keeps the cyclone well removed from the southwest coast
of Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 16.7N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 17.9N 111.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 19.5N 114.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 21.2N 116.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  20/0000Z 23.0N 118.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  21/0000Z 26.5N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  22/0000Z 28.0N 118.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  23/0000Z 29.5N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

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