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TROPICAL STORM ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016
0300 UTC FRI SEP 16 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 123.8W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 123.8W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 123.2W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.5N 125.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.4N 127.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.3N 130.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.3N 132.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.3N 137.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 20.0N 142.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 20.5N 145.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 123.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/ZELINSKY


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