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HURRICANE ORLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016
1500 UTC TUE SEP 13 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 118.7W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  15 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  80SE  70SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 118.7W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 118.7W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 20.2N 118.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 20.3N 119.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 20.4N 120.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 20.3N 121.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 20.0N 126.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 20.0N 131.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 20.5N 135.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 118.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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