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HURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016
200 AM PDT WED SEP 14 2016

There has been little change in the structure of Orlene overnight.
Recent microwave data indicate that the center is a little farther
south than previously estimated, and it is located near the
southern portion of the small central dense overcast.  A blend of
the latest Dvorak T- and CI-numbers results in an initial wind speed
estimate of 70 kt for this advisory.

Vertical shear over Orlene is forecast to decrease today and remain
very low during the next several days, however, the tropical
cyclone is forecast to be over marginally warm SSTs and move into a
drier and more stable air mass.  These environmental conditions are
expected to result in gradual weakening of Orlene during the next
several days.  The new NHC intensity forecast is slightly lower than
the previous advisory during the first 24 hours, but is unchanged
thereafter and is in good agreement with the IVCN intensity model
consensus.

Orlene has become nearly stationary overnight as it is located
within a break in the subtropical ridge.  The ridge is forecast to
re-strengthen during the next couple of days, which should produce a
west or west-southwestward motion at a faster forward speed.  Late
in the forecast period, a large mid- to upper-level low expected
to be well northeast of the Hawaiian Islands should produce a break
in the subtropical ridge, allowing the cyclone to turn
west-northwestward.  The track guidance is in much better
agreement than a day ago, and the updated NHC forecast is near
the middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0900Z 20.2N 118.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 20.2N 119.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 20.0N 120.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 19.9N 122.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 19.8N 124.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  17/0600Z 19.8N 129.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  18/0600Z 20.1N 134.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  19/0600Z 21.5N 138.7W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

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