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BULLETIN
HURRICANE NEWTON ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152016
300 PM MDT TUE SEP 06 2016

...HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND
MEXICO EXTENDED NORTHWARD...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 111.5W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF LORETO MEXICO
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Bahia Kino to Puerto
Libertad.

The Government of Mexico has discontinued all warnings on the
northwestern coast of mainland Mexico south of Altata, on the east
coast of the Baja California peninsula south of La Paz, and on the
west coast of the Baja California peninsula south of Santa Fe.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo San Lazaro to Santa Fe
* La Paz to Mulege
* Guaymas to Puerto Libertad

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Abreojos
* North of Mulege to Bahia San Juan Bautista
* Altata to Guaymas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.  In the
southwestern United States, see products issued by your local
National Weather Service Forecast Office for information on
possible heavy rains, flooding, and high winds.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Newton was located
near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 111.5 West. Newton is moving
toward the north-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h).  A turn toward the
north is expected tonight with this motion continuing through
Wednesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Newton will pass
over portions of Baja California Sur during the next few hours and
then emerge over the Gulf of California.  The center of Newton
should reach the coast of northwestern Mexico early Wednesday and is
expected to reach southeastern Arizona Wednesday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Little change in strength is expected before
landfall in northwestern Mexico, followed by weakening after
landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).  The Mexican automated station at Loreto recently reported
sustained winds of 42 mph (67 km/h) and a wind gust of 82 mph
(131 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  For the Baja California peninsula, tropical storm and
hurricane conditions continue to occur over much of the warned area
of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. These
hazardous wind conditions will spread northward during the remainder
of today within the warning areas.  Preparations to protect life and
property should have been completed.

For the Mexican mainland, hurricane conditions are expected within
the hurricane warning area by early Wednesday morning.  Preparations
to protect life and property should have been completed.  Tropical
storm conditions are beginning over northwestern Mexico within the
warning area, and these conditions will gradually spread northward
throughout the day and into tonight.

Tropical storm conditions could spread into portions of
southeastern Arizona by Wednesday afternoon.

RAINFALL:  Newton is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
8 to 12 inches over the Mexican state of Baja California Sur, and 5
to 10 inches over the Mexican states of Sinaloa, Sonora, western
Nayarit, and Jalisco through Wednesday.  Isolated maximum amounts of
18 inches are possible in Baja California Sur. Moisture associated
with Newton is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to
3 inches with locally higher amounts over southeastern Arizona to
southwestern and south-central New Mexico through Thursday.  In all
of these locations, heavy rain could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides, especially in mountainous terrain.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of the center
on the southern Baja California peninsula and mainland Mexico.  Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.  Elevated water levels are also expected in areas of onshore
wind flow.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Newton are expected to affect the
coast of southwestern Mexico through tonight, but will begin to
subside on Wednesday.  Large swells are occurring along the coast of
Baja California Sur and should spread northward through the Gulf of
California today and Wednesday.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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