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BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152016
400 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2016

...ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 105.4W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for Baja
California Sur from Cabo San Lazaro to San Evaristo, including Cabo
San Lucas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo San Lazaro to San Evaristo, including Cabo San Lucas

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued within 48 hours
of the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fifteen-E was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 105.4
West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph
(4 km/h). A faster northwestward motion is expected during the
next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the depression is
expected to approach the southern portion of the Baja California
peninsula late Monday night or Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days.  The
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight, and
could be near hurricane strength on Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within
the watch area by Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  The depression is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches for coastal portions of the Mexican
states of Michoacan, Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa, as well as the
state of Baja California Sur, with isolated maximum amounts of 15
inches through Tuesday.  These rains could produce life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous
terrain.

SURF:  Swells generated by the depression are expected to increase
near the coast of southwestern Mexico and the southern portion of
the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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