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TROPICAL STORM NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152016
900 AM MDT WED SEP 07 2016

Even after landfall, Newton has been producing a noteworthy burst
of deep convection that will be moving into southeastern Arizona
very soon.  However, the low-level center is becoming partially
exposed to the south and southwest of the convection due to almost
30 kt of shear.  The maximum winds are reduced to 45 kt based on a
steady decay rate, but without observations this estimate is quite
uncertain.  For what it's worth, the NWS WSR-88D from Tucson,
Arizona, is showing 50-kt winds at an elevation of 10,000 ft, so an
intensity between 40-45 kt seems reasonable.

Newton has turned north-northeastward with an initial motion of
015/16 kt.  This motion is expected to continue for the next 12-24
hours before Newton dissipates.  After that time, Newton's remnants
could turn eastward and move into southern New Mexico and western
Texas.

Based on the decay rate shown by the intensity models, Newton could
still move into Arizona as a tropical storm this afternoon, but it
is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by this evening.
Regardless of Newton's exact intensity, it is important to remember
that wind speeds on the tops of hills and mountains could be higher
than the surface wind speeds indicated in the forecast.  The rugged
terrain should cause the cyclone to dissipate overnight.

The main concern with this system will be heavy rainfall that will
continue spreading from northwestern Mexico into Arizona and New
Mexico over the next day or so.  These rains could cause flooding
and mud slides.  Consult statements from you local weather offices
for possible flash flood warnings.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 30.2N 111.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 12H  08/0000Z 32.4N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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