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TROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122016
800 PM PDT MON AUG 22 2016
Most of the deep convection associated with Kay has dissipated,
likely due to the continued entrainment of stable air and marginal
SSTs. However, visible satellite images showed a well-defined
low cloud circulation with tightly curved bands. The current
intensity is kept at 35 kt following a Dvorak estimate from TAFB.
Kay is crossing the 25.5 deg C SST isotherm and will continue to
move into a stable and increasingly dry air mass. These unfavorable
factors should lead to weakening, and Kay is likely to degenerate
into a remnant low in 36 hours. Unless deep convection makes a
comeback, however, this event may occur sooner than that.
The motion remains about the same, or 270/7 kt. There is basically
no change to the track forecast reasoning. Kay, or its remnant low,
should continue to move on a generally westward heading to the south
of a mid-level ridge. The official track forecast is similar to the
previous one and not too different from the multi-model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0300Z 22.0N 118.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 22.3N 119.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 22.6N 121.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 22.8N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/0000Z 22.8N 124.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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