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TROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016
200 AM PDT MON AUG 22 2016

Deep convection associated with Kay has decreased a little in both
intensity and coverage during the last several hours, but the
cyclone is maintaining a small central dense overcast feature.  The
Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB are still 3.0/45 kt, and the
initial wind speed is held at that value for this advisory.  Kay is
nearing the 26-deg-C isotherm, and it will likely cross into those
cooler waters later today.  These unfavorable oceanic conditions
combined with a drier air mass along the expected track should cause
a slow decay during the next couple of days.   Kay will likely
degenerate into a remnant low pressure area when it moves over water
temperatures below 25 deg C in 36 to 48 hours.  All of the global
models show the system opening into a trough by Wednesday night, and
the official forecast follows that guidance.

Kay continues to move west-northwestward to northwestward at about
7 kt as it is being steered by a subtropical ridge to its northeast.
A gradual turn to the left is expected during the next couple of
days as Kay becomes shallower and is steered by the low-level trade
wind flow.  The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one
and lies fairly close to the various consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 22.2N 116.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 22.5N 117.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 22.8N 118.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 23.2N 120.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 23.5N 121.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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