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TROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016
300 AM MDT SUN AUG 21 2016

Kay has weakened some overnight.  The areal coverage of deep
convection has shrunk a little since the previous advisory, but the
cyclone is maintaining an area of very cold cloud tops near the
center of the storm.  A pair of recent ASCAT passes show maximum
winds in the 30 to 35 kt range, and accordingly, the initial
intensity is lowered to 35 kt for this advisory.  This estimate is
near the low end of the Dvorak classifications.  Although Kay is
expected to remain in a low wind shear environment during the next
several days, decreasing sea surface temperatures and a
progressively drier air mass along the path of the system should
cause a slow weakening trend beginning Monday. Kay is expected to
degenerate into a remnant low in 3 to 4 days when it moves over
SSTs below 25 deg C, and dissipate in 4 to 5 days.

The tropical storm is moving northwestward at about 6 kt.  A turn
to the west-northwest is expected later today as a mid-level ridge
builds to the north and northeast of Kay.  Once Kay becomes a
remnant low, it should turn westward in the easterly trade wind
flow. Although the models agree on the overall theme, there are
significant differences in the projected forward motion of Kay. The
NHC track forecast is not too different from the previous one and
lies near a consensus of the GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, and HWRF models.

The 34-kt wind radii were modified based on the aforementioned
ASCAT data.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0900Z 20.9N 114.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 21.3N 114.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 21.9N 115.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  22/1800Z 22.3N 117.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  23/0600Z 22.7N 118.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  24/0600Z 23.6N 121.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  25/0600Z 23.5N 124.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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