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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016
900 PM MDT THU AUG 18 2016

The tropical depression has changed little in organization since
this afternoon.  The center, which has been very difficult to
locate in conventional satellite pictures, appears to be located
near the northeastern edge of a pulsating area of deep convection.
Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS are all
below tropical storm strength, so the system will remain a 30-kt
depression for this advisory.  The cyclone is currently being
affected by moderate northeasterly shear, but the shear is
predicted to subside during the next day or so while the system
moves over warm water.  This should allow for a gradual increase
in winds during the next 24 hours.  After that time, the cyclone
is expected to encounter less favorable thermodynamic conditions,
which should initiate weakening.  The updated NHC forecast shows a
slightly higher peak intensity in 24 hours, but is otherwise
unchanged from the previous forecast.

The somewhat uncertain initial motion is still estimated to be
315/6 kt.  The cyclone should move northwestward to north-
northwestward around the western portion of a mid- to upper-level
ridge over northwestern Mexico during the next day or two. However,
there is more uncertainty than normal since there is a large spread
in the track guidance.  The GFS keeps the depression moving
generally north-northwestward while the ECMWF, UKMET, HWRF, and GFS
ensemble mean show the system turning west-northwestward when it
weakens in 2 to 3 days.  The NHC track has been adjusted slightly
westward and is now located between the GFS ensemble mean and the
multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 17.8N 110.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 18.6N 111.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  20/0000Z 19.4N 111.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  20/1200Z 20.2N 111.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  21/0000Z 20.7N 111.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  22/0000Z 21.6N 112.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  23/0000Z 22.3N 113.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  24/0000Z 23.3N 115.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

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