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TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112016
900 PM MDT MON AUG 08 2016

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Javier at 700 mb this
evening, as part of a research mission, measured peak SFMR-observed
surface winds of 46 kt. A dropsonde measured a central pressure of
1003 mb, but with a 45-kt surface wind, which equates to a pressure
of about 999 mb. Based on these data, the intensity has been lowered
slightly to 50 kt. The reconnaissance wind data also indicate that
Javier remains a compact tropical cyclone, and that the
flight-level center is tilted southwest of the surface center.

Smoothing through the various wobbles in the fixes yields an initial
motion estimate of 315/04 kt.  Javier is forecast to continue
moving northwestward around the western periphery of a weakening
mid-level ridge located over the south-central United States and
northern Mexico. The weak steering flow could result in some
erratic motion as Javier moves closer to southern Baja California
and interacts with the mountainous terrain. The new NHC track is
essentially just and update of the previous advisory track, which
takes Javier up the west side of the Baja California peninsula, and
lies close to the multi-model consensus, TVCN.

Aircraft flight-level data also revealed that dry mid-level air had
penetrated into the inner-core region, and this was probably the
main reason for the erosion of the deep convection in the
northeastern semicircle since the previous advisory. Although some
modest convection has recently developed in the southeastern
quadrant, it is less likely now that Javier will be able to sustain
any significant intensification due to the aforementioned dry
mid-level air and the small cyclone interacting with land through
most of the forecast period. The official intensity forecast closely
follows the consensus intensity model, IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 22.5N 109.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 23.2N 110.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 24.2N 111.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 25.1N 112.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 26.0N 113.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  12/0000Z 27.3N 113.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 96H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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