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TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016
300 PM MDT MON AUG 08 2016
An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently investigated Javier
on a long mission from base. They measured peak SFMR-observed
surface winds of 54 kt and maximum 850 mb flight-level winds of 52
kt. On the basis of these data, the intensity is set at 55 kt.
Some slight additional strengthening is possible tonight while the
center pass near or over the extreme southern Baja California
peninsula. Later the period, cooler SSTs, interaction with land,
and an increasingly stable air mass should cause gradual weakening.
The official intensity forecast is a little above the latest model
consensus.
Center fixes from the aircraft give an initial motion estimate of
315/8. Javier is expected to continue to move around the western
periphery of a mid-level anticyclone centered near Texas. The
official track forecast lies close to the dynamical model
consensus, TVCN.
Observations from the aircraft indicate that Javier is a small
tropical cyclone. Although some slight expansion of the wind field
may occur over the next day or so, the radius of
tropical-storm-force winds is not expected to be much more than 60
n mi.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/2100Z 22.5N 109.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 23.3N 110.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 24.3N 111.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 25.2N 112.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 26.2N 113.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 27.5N 114.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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