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TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112016
300 AM MDT MON AUG 08 2016

The tropical cyclone has changed little in organization since the
previous advisory.  The convective banding structure that was noted
during the evening has become less apparent, but a new burst of
convection has recently developed near the estimated center.  A
couple of ASCAT overpasses between 0400 and 0500 UTC indicated that
the center is located slightly northeast of the previous
estimates, and it may be near the northeastern portion of the new
convective mass, due to some northeasterly shear.  Javier's initial
wind speed remains 45 kt for this advisory, which is based on
Dvorak classifications of T3.0 and the ASCAT data which showed winds
to around 40 kt.

Javier will be traversing very warm water and the shear is expected
to decrease today, which should allow for strengthening during the
next 12 to 24 hours.  The intensity guidance is slightly lower
than before, so the NHC forecast shows a little less strengthening
than earlier.  Although it is not explicitly indicated in the NHC
forecast, Javier could become a hurricane when it is near the
southern portion of the Baja California peninsula.  In a day or
so, decreasing SSTs, land interaction, and a more stable
airmass are expected to cause weakening.

The tropical storm is moving northwestward at about 11 kt.  The
track forecast philosophy remains the same from the previous
advisory.  Javier should continue moving northwestward with some
reduction in forward speed while it is steered around the
southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge over Texas.  The track
guidance is in generally good agreement, and the new NHC forecast is
an update of the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0900Z 21.5N 108.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  08/1800Z 22.2N 109.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  09/0600Z 23.1N 110.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  09/1800Z 24.2N 111.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  10/0600Z 25.4N 112.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  11/0600Z 27.2N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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