ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 06 2016

West-southwesterly shear is really taking a toll on Ivette.  SHIPS
guidance is indicating that the shear has increased to near 15 kt,
and a recent SSMI overpass supports this by showing the low-level
center well removed from the deep convection.  Satellite intensity
estimates have generally decreased, and the initial intensity is
lowered to 45 kt based on Dvorak CI numbers of 3.0 from TAFB and
SAB.  Although Ivette is beginning to move over very warm waters
near 29C, the vertical shear is forecast to increase further during
the next couple of days.  Therefore, gradual weakening is
anticipated, and Ivette is likely to lose organized convection and
become a remnant low in about 3 days.  The remnant low is then
expected to degenerate to a trough by day 5.  With the exception of
the GFDL, all of the intensity models show weakening, and the NHC
intensity forecast has been lowered a bit compared to the previous
forecast.

Ivette has turned west-northwestward with an initial motion of
285/9 kt.  A mid-level low located west of Ivette near 17N142W and
a subtropical ridge along 26N should cause the cyclone to continue
moving west-northwestward as long as it's maintaining deep
convection.  Once the convection vanishes, the shallow remnant low
is expected to turn westward in the low-level trades.  The NHC
track forecast lies close to the multi-model consensus and is a
little faster than the previous forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 16.1N 134.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 16.6N 135.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 17.3N 137.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 18.1N 139.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 18.4N 141.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z 18.5N 144.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  10/1200Z 18.0N 148.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNN