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TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016
200 PM PDT WED AUG 03 2016

Ivette continues to display a sheared convective pattern with the
low-level center located to the north-northeast of the deepest
convection.  Recent ASCAT data shows that the maximum winds are
near 40 kt, which is also an average of the Dvorak estimates from
TAFB and SAB.  The vertical shear affecting the cyclone is still
expected to diminish during the next 24 hours, and sea surface
temperatures will be between 27-28C for the next 3 to 4 days.
Therefore, strengthening is anticipated, with a peak intensity
likely occurring in about 3 days.  Most of the intensity models
still don't show significant intensification even though the shear
gets quite low in a couple of days.  For now, the NHC official
intensity forecast leans on persistence and continues to be near the
high end of the intensity guidance.  Incidentally, the HWRF model
has come in a little stronger on this cycle and now shows Ivette
getting near the threshold of a category 2 hurricane.

The initial motion remains 295/15 kt.  The subtropical ridge to the
north is expected to turn Ivette westward by tonight, with that
heading continuing through 48 hours.  After that time, a break in
the ridge to the northeast of Hawaii is forecast to cause Ivette to
turn back to the west-northwest and slow down on days 3-5.
Confidence in the track forecast remains high through day 5 due to a
tightly packed guidance envelope, and the official NHC track
forecast is relatively close to the previous forecast and the TVCN
multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 14.9N 122.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 15.2N 124.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 15.4N 127.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 15.5N 129.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 15.8N 131.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 17.0N 135.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  07/1800Z 18.5N 139.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  08/1800Z 19.5N 142.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

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