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TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092016
200 AM PDT MON AUG 01 2016

The cloud pattern of the cyclone has improved since the previous
advisory with the low-level center now embedded within a developing
central dense overcast feature. Satellite intensity estimates are
T3.0/45 kt from TAFB, T2.5/35 kt from SAB, and T2.7/39 kt from
UW-CIMSS ADT. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been
increased to 35 kt for this advisory, and the cyclone has been
upgraded to Tropical Storm Howard, the eighth named storm of the
2016 season and the eighth named storm during the past 30 days as
well.

The initial motion remains 295/10 kt. There are no significant
changes to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Howard is
expected to move in a general west-northwestward motion for the next
72 hours along the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge located
to the north of the cyclone. After that time, the cyclone is
forecast to become a shallow remnant low over much cooler water and
be steered westward by the low-level easterly tradewind flow. The
new NHC forecast track is essentially just an extension of the
previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus models and
down the middle of the tightly packed guidance envelope.

Additional strengthening is forecast today and tonight while Howard
remains over SSTs greater than 25.5 deg C. By 36-48 hours, the
cyclone will be moving over sub-24 deg C water and into some modest
southwesterly vertical wind shear. That combination of unfavorable
conditions will induce steady weakening, resulting in Howard
degenerating into a post-tropical cyclone by 48 hours and beyond.
The official intensity forecast is similar to previous forecast, and
closely follows the SHIPS and IVCN consensus intensity models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0900Z 16.1N 122.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 16.8N 124.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 18.0N 127.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 19.1N 129.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 20.2N 132.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  04/0600Z 21.9N 137.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/0600Z 22.6N 143.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/0600Z 22.7N 149.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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