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TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016

Deep convection associated with Georgette continues to decrease
with only one small cluster of showers remaining to the west of
the center.  Recent objective and subjective satellite intensity
estimates range from 45 kt to 65 kt.  Based on the lack of
convection and continuity from the previous advisory, the initial
intensity is reduced to 50 kt.  Georgette should continue to
weaken in an environment of dry mid-level air and sea surface
temperatures of 23C-25C.  The intensity forecast calls for the
cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low in about 36 hours based on
the premise that some convection will re-develop during the diurnal
convective maximum Wednesday morning.  If this does not happen, the
system should decay to a remnant low on Wednesday.

Georgette has moved little since the last advisory.  Water vapor
imagery shows a mid- to upper-level trough is moving westward to the
northwest and west of Georgette.  This feature has likely weakened
the subtropical ridge and contributed to the current lack of
motion. The dynamical models forecast the ridge to build north of
Georgette during the next 48-72 hours, which should steer the
cyclone or its remnants northwestward and then westward.  While the
new forecast track is somewhat slower, it is otherwise similar to
the previous track and lies near the various consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/2100Z 18.4N 128.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 19.0N 129.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 20.0N 130.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 20.9N 132.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  28/1800Z 21.7N 135.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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