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HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016

Georgette continues to weaken at a fast pace this morning.  Central
deep convection has been diminishing in areal coverage and
intensity, and using a blend of Dvorak T- and Current
Intensity-numbers from TAFB and SAB, the current intensity is set at
70 kt.  Georgette will be moving over sub-25 deg C waters and
through an environment of dry mid-level air, so continued weakening
is expected.  The cyclone's intensity should drop to tropical
storm status today, and below storm strength within 48 hours or
sooner.  The official intensity forecast is a little above the
latest numerical model consensus, IVCN.

The slow forward motion continues, and the initial motion estimate
is northwestward or 315/4 kt.  Georgette is located to the south
of a weakness in the subtropical ridge and this has likely
contributed to the slow northwestward motion.  The ridge is
predicted to build somewhat, and as the weakening tropical cyclone
responds more to the lower-level flow, a gradual turn to the left
with some increase in forward speed is expected during the forecast
period.  The official forecast is only slightly slower than the
previous one albeit along about the same trajectory.  This is close
to the latest model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0900Z 18.5N 128.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 18.8N 128.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 19.5N 129.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 20.5N 130.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  28/0600Z 21.5N 132.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  29/0600Z 22.0N 137.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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