ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072016
800 AM PDT THU JUL 28 2016
Frank has only been devoid of organized deep convection since about
0400 UTC, so the system is still being maintained as a tropical
cyclone for this advisory. However, if this downward convective
trend continues, which appears likely since Frank is now moving
over sub-23 deg C sea-surface temperatures, then the cyclone will
become a remnant low pressure system this afternoon in the next
advisory package. Continued spin down should result in dissipation
of the low-level circulation by 72 hours.
Microwave satellite fixes indicate that Frank is now moving at
290/07 kt. The weakening cyclone is forecast to become more
vertically shallow over the next 48 hours, which should result in a
turn toward the west and then west-southwest, accompanied by gradual
deceleration due to weak easterly tradewind flow. The official
forecast is similar to the previous track and lies close to the TVCN
consensus model.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/1500Z 23.7N 124.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 24.0N 125.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 29/1200Z 24.1N 126.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/0000Z 24.0N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/1200Z 23.7N 127.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Stewart
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