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TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016
300 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

The deep convection associated with Frank has been pulsing this
afternoon and a thin upper-level overcast covers the center.  A
1626Z ASCAT-A scatterometer overpass indicated peak winds of about
45 kt. This is consistent with the Dvorak current intensity numbers
of 3.0 from both SAB and TAFB, so 45 kt remains the intensity at
this time.  The scatterometer also showed that Frank remains a
rather small tropical storm.

Frank should experience moderate tropospheric vertical shear, warm
to hot SSTs, and a moist, unstable atmosphere for the next two to
three days.  Thus gradual to steady intensification is likely, even
though Frank has been steady state for almost a day now.  Beyond day
three, the tropical cyclone should encounter a more hostile
environment with cool SSTs to the west of Baja California with a
more dry, stable atmosphere.  Gradual to steady weakening should
commence around day three.  The NHC intensity forecast is slightly
below that from the previous advisory and is based upon the HWRF and
SHIPS models through three days and upon the SHIPS and LGEM models
at the longer lead times.

The scatterometer pass also provided an accurate observation of
Frank's center location and the cyclone remains heading toward the
northwest at about 12 kt. Frank should turn toward the
west-northwest during the next few days at a slower rate of forward
speed, as the east-west extended deep-layer ridge to its north
weakens some.  All of the reliable global and regional hurricane
models are in close agreement on this scenario and the NHC track
prediction is very similar to the previous advisory through day four
and somewhat south of the previous prediction at day five.

With the forecast track now well offshore from the coast of Mexico,
any direct impacts to land are unlikely.  However, swells associated
with Frank will affect the coasts of southern Baja California and
the state of Sinaloa beginning on Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 17.9N 108.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 18.5N 109.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 18.8N 111.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 19.3N 112.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 19.8N 113.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  25/1800Z 20.8N 115.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  26/1800Z 21.5N 117.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  27/1800Z 22.0N 120.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Landsea

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