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TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016
1500 UTC TUE JUL 19 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 118.8W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE  40SE  40SW  80NW.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE  80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 210SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 118.8W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 118.2W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.2N 120.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 80NE  40SE  40SW  80NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE  80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.6N 122.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  40SE  40SW  80NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE  80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.0N 125.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.7N 127.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.9N 132.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 26.0N 137.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 29.5N 140.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 118.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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