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TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016
0300 UTC TUE JUL 19 2016
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 116.5W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE  40SE  30SW  80NW.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE  80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 116.5W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 116.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.7N 117.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  40SE  30SW  80NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE  80SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.1N 120.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 80NE  40SE  40SW  80NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE  80SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.4N 122.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  40SE  40SW  80NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.9N 124.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.6N 130.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  40SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 24.0N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 27.5N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 116.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 
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