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TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016
1500 UTC MON JUL 18 2016
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 114.9W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE  70SE  20SW  70NW.
34 KT.......130NE 130SE  80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 180SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 114.9W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 114.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.2N 116.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.7N 118.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.1N 120.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.5N 122.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.9N 127.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 23.5N 132.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 27.5N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 114.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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