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TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016
0900 UTC SUN JUL 17 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 111.1W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 111.1W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 110.7W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.6N 112.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.1N 113.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.6N 115.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.8N 117.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.3N 121.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 18.9N 125.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 20.7N 131.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 111.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


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