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TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016
0300 UTC SUN JUL 17 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 110.4W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 110.4W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 110.0W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.4N 111.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.9N 112.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.5N 114.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.9N 116.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.4N 120.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 19.0N 124.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 20.3N 129.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 110.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


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