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TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016
800 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2016

Convection associated with Estelle has decreased during the past
several hours, and there is currently no organized convection
present.  The initial intensity is reduced to 40 kt based on the
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB combined with the subsequent
decay of the convection.  Cold water, a dry air mass, and
increasing shear should cause continued weakening, with Estelle
likely to decay to a remnant low sometime on Friday.  The system is
subsequently forecast to weaken to a trough after 72 hours.

The initial motion remains 290/14 kt.  Estelle is being steered by
a mid-level ridge centered well to the east over the south-central
United States, and it is heading for a break in the ridge caused by
a large deep-layer low over the northeastern Pacific.  This
combination should produce a general west-northwestward to
northwestward motion until the system dissipates.  The new forecast
track is basically an update of the previous track and lies near
the various consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 21.0N 130.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 21.6N 133.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 22.8N 135.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  23/1200Z 24.1N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/0000Z 25.4N 140.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/0000Z 28.0N 145.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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