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TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016

Convection near the center of Estelle has deepened and become more
symmetric this evening.  Microwave data show some improvement in
inner-core structure as well, although the low- and mid-level
centers are still somewhat separated.  Subjective Dvorak
classifications are a little higher than 6 hours ago, so the wind
speed is raised to 60 kt.

Little significant change in strength is forecast overnight since
the cyclone is quickly approaching cooler waters.  With the recent
upward trends in organization, however, Estelle could sneak up to
hurricane intensity during that time, and this is reflected in the
official forecast.  A gradual weakening should begin by late
Wednesday since Estelle will be moving over much cooler waters, with
remnant low status likely by late Friday.  The new NHC prediction is
similar to the previous one and the intensity consensus, adjusted
slightly higher for the initial wind speed.

In contrast to the tricky intensity forecasts for Estelle, the
track forecasts have been straightforward.  A persistent subtropical
ridge should continue to steer the storm westward to west-
northwestward for the next couple of days.  The western portion of
the ridge is finally forecast to erode in about 72 hours, which
will likely cause Estelle or its remnants to turn northwestward by
day 4.  Guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, with
a westward shift to the latest NHC track forecast to better
reflect the newest model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 19.1N 121.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 19.3N 122.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 19.7N 125.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 20.3N 127.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  22/0000Z 21.1N 130.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  23/0000Z 23.8N 135.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/0000Z 27.5N 139.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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